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Unum (UNM) Shares Gain 10% in a Year: More Room for Growth?

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Unum Group’s (UNM - Free Report) shares have gained 9.6% in a year, compared with the industry’s increase of 9% and the Finance sector’s increase of 8.4%. With a market capitalization of $8.8 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 1.5 million.

Disciplined sales trends, strong persistency, an improving rate environment, favorable risk experience and solid capital continue to drive this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) insurer’s performance. Earnings of this leading disability income writer have increased 6.8% over the last five years, outperforming the industry average of 2.4%. UNM delivered an earnings surprise in the three reported quarters of 2023.

Can UNM Retain the Momentum?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is pegged at $7.86, indicating a year-over-year increase of 1.8% on 3.4% higher revenues of $12.8 billion. Unum also estimates 45-55% growth in adjusted operating EPS by 2024 and 8-10% growth in the long term.

The consensus estimate for long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 6.9%, better than the industry average of 6.7%.

UNM should continue to benefit from solid performance in Unum U.S. and Colonial Life — the two largest operating segments of Unum. While disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines like dental and vision should drive Unum US, improving premium income and favorable risk results should drive the Colonial Life segment.

Unum’s in-force block growth and higher overall sales have been driving premiums. We estimate 2025 premiums to witness a three-year CAGR of 4.1%. UNM estimates core operations premium to grow in the range of 4-7% in the long term.

Unum Group boasts a solid capital position. Sustained solid operating results have been fueling a solid level of statutory earnings and capital, cushioning financial flexibility. Strong statutory earnings are expected to provide an impetus to dividend capacity.

As part of its capital payout policy, UNM has hiked dividends 13 times in the last 12 years. Also, UNM expects to repurchase $500 million worth of shares in 2024. The insurer expects to hike dividends by 10% per year over the five-year period.  

Stocks to Consider

Some top-ranked stocks from the insurance space are Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC - Free Report) , Primerica (PRI - Free Report) and Sun Life Financial (SLF - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Manulife delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.66%. The stock has gained 11.4% in a year.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFC’s 2024 earnings has moved 3 cents higher in the past 60 days.

Primerica delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.87%. The stock has surged 44.5% in a year.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PRI’s 2024 earnings has moved 0.3% higher in the past seven days.

Sun Life delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.98%. The stock has gained 4.3% in a year.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SLF’s 2024 earnings has moved 0.8% higher in the past 30 days.


 

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